Fantasy Football Strategy 101 – Playing the Match Ups

While thinking about a topic to address this week it became clear to me that we have overlooked the most basic fantasy football strategy – playing the match ups. In no other fantasy sport is a players performance more reliant on match ups. A good fantasy player can turn into a great player when going against a below average defense. Likewise a great player can always be contained against a top defense. This article will explore in depth how to best play weekly fantasy football match ups.

Simple logic tells us that to maximize fantasy football output, just start players going against terrible defenses. Without a doubt a thorough evaluation of match ups should be conducted every week as you decide whether to sit or play a particular player. I recommend going to NFL.com and checking each defenses ranking in passing yards and rushing yards allowed. While the defensive matchup is not the only factor going into your start/sit decision it is certainly one of the most important.

For example, this week I was deciding on a receiver to pickup off waivers as a bye week fill-in. The first thing I did was to look for receivers on home teams coming off a bye. In last weeks article we thoroughly documented the value of playing a teams receivers and quarterbacks that are at home coming off a bye – it is something that should be exploited if possible. Next, I cruised over to NFL.com and sorted defenses based on passing yards allowed. Since there were not any free agents available in my league that were home and coming off a bye I decided to go by defensive match ups. I narrowed my selection down to Torry Holt who is coming off a bye and playing on the road against the NFL’s worst pass defense, the Tennessee Titans and Devin Hester who is also on the road against one of the NFLs bottom tier pass defenses, the Cleveland Browns. In the end I decided to go with Hester because he is the #1 option on Chicago and I felt Tennessee does have talent and is due for a win. So, you can see I was able to leverage defensive match ups to narrow the list of possible starters and then brought in other factors to make my final decision.

While match ups are crucial to identifying players looking to take it to the next level on a given Sunday, the question remains, should you ever bench a star player over a matchup? The quick answer to this is no. The fact is that in the NFL you just don’t know what is going to happen on any given Sunday. I simply could never recommend benching a star player like Adrian Peterson just because he is going up against the leagues best rush defense. Looking at APs game log from 2008 he broke 100 yards against the Giants, Packers and Bears all of which had better than average run defenses last year.

So what have we learned? Basically match ups should never be used to decide whether or not to bench a star player. Your stars should go every week unless they are battling injury. However, match ups are essential to look at when deciding between similarly ranked midtier players and especially for looking at bye week fill-ins.

Does It Make Sense to Sit Postup Fantasy Basketball Players Against Top Ranked Defenses?

This article will explore how important match ups are in fantasy basketball. We all know fantasy football is game that is very dependent on defensive match ups so we wanted to see if defensive match ups were also a factor in fantasy basketball. In particular we wanted to focus our analysis on the impact of superior interior defense on the low post offense. To do this we examined average post player performance versus the leagues premier interior defenses.

A quick survey of the league indicates that only Boston, LA, Denver and San Antonio have the type of interior defense that one might want to shy away from. Boston has the combination of Garnett, Sheed, and Kendrick Perkins which is probably the best the league has to offer. All three are just about 7 feet tall and Garnett is former defensive player of the year. The Lakers are also a team of above average size. Between Gasol, Byum, Odem and Artest the Lakers have one of the best interior defenses in the Western Conference. Denver is the one Western Conference team that could challenge for that title with Nene, Birdman and Kenyon Martin combining like Megatron to have the Nuggets blocking shots into the upper decks. Finally, any discussion around interior defense cannot neglect the San Antionio Spurs who always bring it defensively. Duncan and McDysess are two old school defensive OGs who along with the excellent help-side defense of their teammates can really shut down the oppositions post game.

Lets dig right into some numbers. Table 1 shows the average point and rebound differential for NBA teams post players going against the four superior defensive teams used in our data set. In aggregate, post players can expect a dip in scoring (-3.07ppg) and rebounding (-0.71rpg) when going against the leagues top defenses. While these results are not large deviations from a given post players season average, the take away message is that you should not expect the monster game that will increase your season average when going against an elite defense.

A few more interesting things come out of this analysis. First, the impact of a superior post defense has a more profound effect on scoring than rebounding. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that while we have qualitatively identified 4 superior defensive teams it appears that Boston and Denver seem to be a tier above the San Antonio and LA defenses. In fact, if you remove SA and LA then the avg point and rebound differentials become -6 ppg and close to -1 rpg.

Table 1.

Team	Avg Point Differential	Avg Reb Differential
San Antonio	-0.29	-1.86
Boston	-4.67	-0.67
Denver	-7.0	-0.67
LA Lakers	-0.33	0.33
TOTAL	-3.07	-0.71

So the question remains, should you bench players based on defensive math ups. We will stick to the same recommendation that we made for football. Never bench your star players, but use defensive match ups as go/no-go decision metric for playing mid-tier players or inconsistent players.

So there you have it, defensive match ups do play a role in fantasy basketball, at least from the post players perspective. While the differentials are not drastic, they do support the fact your mid-tier players less likely to over perform against a superior defense. Luckily for you the NBA has largely become a guards game and there only a handful of defenses with sufficient personnel to create match up problems is the low post.

Home Teams Coming Off a Bye: Is There A Fantasy Football Player Advantage?

By: Bobby Hastings 10/25/2009

We all think of the negatives around the bye week for fantasy football purposes, but could there be a huge positive? Is it possible that rested players coming off a bye outperform their average weekly output? This article will explore whether or not there is a real advantage to starting players coming off a bye week who are playing at home.

The thinking here is that the extra rest and the comforts of playing at home will lead to higher player performance. To explore this we looked at a sampling of players we consider “starter-worthy” from the 2008 season and compared their home team post bye week performance to their average numbers for the year. The results were very interesting; lets take a look at the major skill positions.

Quarterbacks coming off a bye and playing at home averaged 316 yards per game. Interestingly, that was only 42 yards more than the average weekly output of the players in the sample from the quarterback position. Rather than focus on the additional fantasy point (assuming 40 passing yards=1 pt) we keep our attention on the 316 yards per game average. What that tells us is that by starting a quarterback coming off a bye at home you are almost guaranteed a big yardage game. The scenario seems to minimize the chance of a below average performance. These quarterbacks also averaged close to two TDs per game, which again is another indicator of above average play.

Running backs coming off a bye and playing at home averaged 77 yards per game, which was 20 yards higher than the seasonal average of the other running backs included in the sample. That translates to an average additional output of 2 fantasy points (assuming 10 yards=1 fantasy point). While these results are not as convincing to us as the quarterback numbers, it does appear that you can get decent production out of running backs playing under the home team coming off bye week scenario. Despite the slight increase in rushing yards, we did not see an advantage in overall TD output from running backs in the sample. At the end of the day, the running back position still comes down to match-ups. If the match-up is right, we would slightly bump up a home team post bye week running back.

Finally, wide receivers coming off a bye and playing at home averaged 104 yards per game. That is 42 yards above the average weekly output of the sample, which came in at 61 yards per game. That extra output translates to a full 4 fantasy points per game (assuming 10 yards=1 pt). In addition, the 104 yards per game average is again a very strong indicator that your top receivers will play above their average at home coming off the bye. Wide receivers also saw a slight increase in average TDs versus their seasonal average, which we view as further confirmation of the benefit gained by playing WRs in the home team coming off a bye scenario.

This analysis indicates that the passing game seems to benefit most from the week off and the home field advantage. The numbers are very convincing from the quarterback and wide receiver positions. Running backs do not seem to benefit from the scenario as much and we would not recommend significantly bumping up their value in the home team post bye scenario. In summary, we think we are on to something here. Feel free to elevate quarterbacks and wide receivers who are playing at home and coming off the bye week.

Does the Wildcat Offense Have an Effect on Fantasy Football?

By: Bobby Hastings 10/18/2009

The Wildcat offense has taken the league by storm. When run correctly it is so effective that most teams are attempting to work it into their weekly game plans. This article will explore what the Wildcat is, which teams run it, and the potential impact of use on individual player performance from a fantasy football perspective.

If you have been living on a different planet and are not familiar with exactly what the Wildcat is, essentially it is a formation where the ball is snapped directly to the running back rather than the quarterback. Since the quarterback typically does not have blocking responsibilities the formation allows the offense to use an additional blocker. In addition, there is often a receiver/running back in motion from the slot that gives the offense the ability to run up the middle or to the outside. Defenses now have to account for not only the additional blocker but if the play will go inside or outside. To make things even tougher for the defense there are flavors of the wildcat that line a quarterback up on the outside, opening up the potential for a passing game out of the Wildcat!

All of that sounds great, but does it work? The answer is yes. In 2008 the Dolphins (who feature the Wildcat offense more than any other team) employed the Wildcat on 11% of their snaps. They averaged an impressive 6.5 yards per carry out of the Wildcat versus 3.9 out of traditional formations. This season the Eagles have worked the Wildcat into their offense and are averaging 5.04 yards per carry out of it versus 3.9 yards per carry out of traditional offensive formations. Other teams have not been as successful. The Raiders have attempted to feature Darren McFadden out of the Wildcat, however he is only averaging 5 yards per carry versus 4.4 yards per carry out of traditional offensive sets.

It seems that the combination of the proper personnel and experience running the formation contribute to Wildcat success. For that reason, other than the Dolphins and Eagles the Wildcat will remain a trick formation for most NFL teams and have little impact on individual player statistics. Table 1 is a list we have put together of NFL teams that run the Wildcat offense. This list may have changed to date as more and more coaches work Wildcat schemes into their game plans. In any case we have broken the Wildcat teams into three categories, Heavy, Moderate and Light. The categories differentiate teams by their use of the Wildcat. The table also highlights which players could see a potential fantasy football impact from their teams utilization of the Wildcat package. Miami is the only team that falls into the Heavy category. This year they are using the Wildcat about 13% of the time versus 11% last year. So, as you can see even the gold-standard Wildcat team is not really using the package so frequently. Teams in the moderate category run approximately 5% of their snaps out of the Wildcat while teams in the Light category use it very sparingly.

So, what does the Wildcat mean for fantasy football? Essentially unless your player is on the Dolphins don’t expect to change the way you value your players. However, given the right weekly matchup, against a team with poor run defense, Wildcat usage can be used to differentiate between two similarly ranked players. Wide receivers that run in the wildcat may see a slight rise in value due to additional rushing yards that they most likely would not be getting out of traditional offensive sets. Players like DeSean Jackson, Devin Hester and Anquan Boldin are the real names to watch. Most running backs will see only a slight benefit at best from running the wildcat. As previously stated, since the scheme is used 13% of the time at most by the Dolphins and more like 5% of the time by average NFL teams, Wildcat running backs should see only a small up tick in value. Likewise, Quarterbacks involved in Wildcat systems should not see a significant decrease in value. With the offense only being utilized on average for approximately 5% of a teams plays, the issue of the Quarterback coming off the field should be of little concern.

So there you have it. Hopefully this provided an in-depth look at what the Wildcat is and why it provides an advantage to the teams that run it. Is the Wildcat a fad? Will defensive coordinators find a way to shut it down? Only time will tell. For now, there is one thing that is for sure -the formation should NOT have a large impact on the valuation of fantasy football players.

Table 1.

Heavy

Miami

Moderate

Philadelphia

Buffalo

Chicago

Dallas

Oakland

Denver

Light

Arizona

Atlanta

Baltimore

San Diego

San Francisco

St. Louis

BleacherCreatureRotoTalk Last Minute Injury Report

By: Frankie Lampando 10/05/2009

Week 4 Fantasy Football Injury Landscape

Quarterbacks
Tom Brady practiced fully and should start
Brett Favre limited in practice will start
Matt Hasselbeck out
Mark Bulger out

Running Backs
LaDainian Tomlinson probable, but will split carries
Marion Barber probable, but Choice will carry the load
Clinton Portis GTD
Kevin Smith GTD – not expected to play.
Frank Gore out
Jamal Lewis out
Willie Parker doubtful
Carnell Williams probable
Derrick Ward GTD – not expected to play
Mike Bell out

Wide Receivers
Wes Welker GTD – practiced all week.
Dwayne Bowe GTD
Antonio Bryant GTD – should play
Anthony Gonzalez out
Lance Moore limited in practice, should play
Domenik Hixon out
Chaz Schilens out

Tight Ends
Todd Heap practiced fully and should play.

Kickers
Phil Dawson doubtful

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Week 4 NFL Straight Up / Spread Picks

By Masterballer 10/03/2009

FFBaller.com

We are 32-16 against the spread and 30-18 straight up for the season.

Chicago (-10) over Detroit
The Lions beat a very bad Redskins team at home for their first victory since the 2007 season. Meanwhile the Bears look like they've found their franchise QB in Cutler and face their weakest opponents of the season in the Lions. With Kevin Smith a game time decision, the home team should win this one easily. Chicago 34-14

Indianapolis (-10.5) over Seattle
The Seahawks will probably not have Hasselbeck under center again and will have trouble keeping up with the high powered Colts offense. Peyton Manning has been sensational in his last two games and will prove too much for Seattle to handle. Colts 30-17

Cincinnati (-5.5) over Cleveland
The Bengals will use Benson to control the game which will allow Palmer to have his best game of the year. The last time these two teams met at the Dawg pound, the Browns were shutout. Bengals 24-7

New York Giants (-8.5) over Kansas City
The Giants own the top rated pass defense and should make easy work of Matt Cassel. With Dwayne Bowe likely out or at best hobbled, this could be a repeat of the Giants game with the Bucs. Giants 27-7

Baltimore (+2) over New England
You can't run on the Ravens but you can pass. Brady will have some success but the Ravens offense has finally arrived and the Pats won't be able to outscore Baltimore. Ravens 30-21

Tennessee (-3) over Jacksonville
The 0-3 Titans will be a little more desperate than the 1-2 Jaguars. The strength of the Jaguars, Maurice Jones-Drew, goes up against the second ranked run defense of the Titans. Tennessee won both times when these teams met last year and this game won’t be any different. Titans 17-10

Tampa Bay (+7) over Washington
The Bucs aren’t as bad as the Giants made them out to be. It just happens that the Giants are a very good team. The Skins aren’t nearly as good as the Giants and are lucky they’ve actually won a game. Both teams are desperate but I’ll give the edge to the home team in a close game. Redskins 24-20

Miami (+2.5) over Buffalo
Miami has played better than their record indicates with their opponents combining for a 7-2 record. They won both games against the Bills last year and a desperate Dolphins team should make it three in a row. Dolphins 17-10

San Francisco (-9.5) over St. Louis
The Niners would be 3-0 except for a last second Favre heave into the end zone. They owned the 4th ranked rushing defense and should shut down the Rams' only weapon, Steven Jackson. 49ers 27-10

Oakland (+9) over Houston
Houston's defense is horrific which will keep this game close since the Raiders need all the help they can get scoring. Each team will exploit the other's weak rush defense which will keep their respective QBs from making costly mistakes. In the end, the Texans have a little more firepower than Oakland. Texans 28-20

New Orleans (-7) over New York Jets
The Saints will be the best offense the Jets have seen this season. While the Jets' defense has been outstanding, the Saints can score in too many ways proving in Philly they can even dominate the best defenses. It might be a closer game if it were later in the season and played in New York ( NJ really) but the Saints will take this one at home. Saints 28-17
Dallas (-3) over Denver

Denver remains a mystery going undefeated in the first three weeks but between miracle tosses and weak opponents it's hard to get a gauge on them. Romo continues his uneven play for Dallas so if the Denver defense is for real he's going to have a tough afternoon. Denver has only played against a good QB once this year and that was a rusty Palmer in week one. He still managed to throw for 247 yards so Denver's run may be ending now that the easy games are over. Cowboys 28-24

San Diego (+6.5) over Pittsburgh
The Steelers will look to exploit the Chargers' weak run defense and keep Rivers off the field. Rivers should get enough time with the Steelers having problems getting to the QB. It'll be close but I like the desperate team at home. Steelers 21-20

Green Bay (+3.5) over Minnesota
This should be a tight game between division rivals. The Packers won't be able to stop AP but they always seem to be able to hang with the Vikes. Packers 20-17

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How Important Is an Elite Quarterback To Your Fantasy Football Team

By: Bobby Hastings 10/03/2009

Just how important is it to have a top tier quarterback on your fantasy football team? We have heard time and time again that the running back position is the most important slot to fill on your fantasy football team. In recent years with the emergence of the running back by committee we have begun to see the argument that a top WR may be worthy of a pick over a running back. The common belief on quarterbacks is that it is a deep position where you can still get acceptable performance from the average starter. This article will challenge that thesis and explore the fantasy football quarterback position in depth.

The one statistic that trumps all in fantasy football is the league championship. That is what we all strive for and is the ultimate measure of success. Taking a close look at my league over the last five years yields interesting results (Table 1). Every championship team over the past five years had a top tier quarterback. In fact, in three of the five sample years the championship team has had the number one ranked quarterback at the end of the season. In all five seasons, there was a never a champion without a top three quarterback. While the overall sample size is small (one league, five years) we still think the results are significant. So not only do you need to get lucky and avoid injury to win a championship, but you will also need maximum performance from the quarterback position to have a shot at the title.

Table 1.
Yr	Player	Overall Rank
2008	Aaron Rodger	#2
2007	Drew Brees	#1
2006	Drew Brees	#1
2005	Matt Hasselback	#3
2004	Brett Favre	#1

Next we took a look at the top 25 quarterbacks from 2008 to see if we could determine a cut off between the various grades of quarterback. The goal here is to answer the question: “Do you really need to go out and draft the #1 ranked quarterback, or are their other players who can be had later in the draft with an equal chance of finishing the season in the top 3? Looking at the top 25 quarterbacks from 2008 we can separate the distribution into 5 cohorts (Table 2). There is a clear difference in performance across the cohorts. What this tells us is that ranking quarterbacks based on tier is a valid methodology. Furthermore, selecting a quarterback from the first cohort (top 5 qb) should help to ensure that you finish the year with a top 3 quarterback and a shot at your league title. Another thing the distribution really emphasizes is large difference between the top and average quarterbacks.

Table 2.
Cohort	Avg Points	Ranking
1	266	1-5
2	223	6-10
3	191	11-15
4	173	16-20
5	145	21-25

Lastly, we wanted to take a look at the variability in week-to-week performance across the top 25 quarterbacks. We have already established that the top tier quarterbacks put up more points over the length of the season, but just how consistent is this performance? If the top qbs are getting their numbers in a handful of games that should not really contribute as much to consistent fantasy winning. Table 3 breaks the top 25 quarterbacks up into 5 cohorts. Analyzing the standard deviation in weekly fantasy points across the 5 buckets indicates there is no difference in variability from the top cohort and bottom cohort of quarterbacks. What that means is the best quarterbacks in the league are just as likely to have a bad game as the mid-tier/lower-tier quarterback options. However, since the top tier qb’s output is consistently higher they will produce more points throughout the season. In other words, a bad game from a top qb is a lot better than a bad game from a bottom tier qb.

Table 3.
Cohort	STDEV
1	30
2	24
3	34
4	32
5	38

So what have we learned? It appears that you need a top tier quarterback to win your league. The top quarterbacks put up more points and are no more erratic in the distribution of their scoring than an average quarterback. Drafting a quarterback projected to finish in the top 4 is a safe bet to ensure your quarterback is a top ranked player at the end of the season and you have a chance to win your fantasy football championship!

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