BleacherCreatureRotoTalk: July 2009

Friday, July 31, 2009

George Sherrill Traded To Dodgers – Fantasy Implications

By: Alex Woods 7/31/2009

George Sherrill was traded to the Dodgers today for two minor league players. The fantasy implications for Sherrill owners are that he loses all his value! It has already been confirmed that he will assume the setup 8th inning role for the Dodgers. With Sherrill never really being a great contributor in WHIP, his strengths are narrowed to potential small gains in ERA. It is safe to cut him in all league formats. However, fantasy owners should run to pick up Jim Johnson who will likely assume closing duties in Baltimore so long as the dreaded closer by committee situation is avoided.

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Big Sloppy & Manny Both Test Positive For The Sauce in 2003

By: Alex Woods 7/31/2009Buzz up!vote now

Big News out of the Bean Town Today. The so-called Boston dynasty of the mid 2000’s is a fraud. Both Ortiz & Ramirez, the heart and soul of the Red Sox championship teams apparently tested positive for controlled substances in 2003. Ortiz claims to blindsided by the report. He has contacted the players union to find out more about what he allegedly tested positive for. Ortiz says once he finds out what he tested positive for he will share the information with the media and fans. His transparency around the issue makes one think he may be telling the truth. Manny, coming of a huge suspension for use of performance enhancing drugs has remained silent regarding the issue thus far. In other news, Ortiz hit 3-run go ahead homer in yesterday’s game to give Boston the win.

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Mark Sanchez to Open Jets Camp Number Two on the Depth Chart

By: Bobby Hastings 7/30/2009

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Adjust your rankings accordingly. Mark Sanchez, widely believed to be the Jets #1 will open training camp number two on the depth chart. After a tough spring mini-camp showing there are rumors that many veterans on the Jets believe Kellen Clemens gives the team the best chance to win. We see Sanchez eventually getting a shot due to his large contract – this will probably happen sooner than later as did in a similar situation with the New York Football Giants and Eli Manning. In any case, this is a situation for fantasy owners to avoid. Regardless of who the Jets start at quarterback they will be running the ball hard this year. You do not need to waste a draft pick on Trent Dilfer like production.

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Thursday, July 30, 2009

Knock Him Down A Notch: Braylon Edwards Arrives Late and Fails Physical

By: Bobby Hastings 7/30/2009Buzz up!vote now

This is not what you want to see from a top talent receiver coming off a down year. Last year Braylon Edwards was a huge disappointment to both Browns fans and his fantasy owners. Last year coming into the season Edwards was ranked as a top 4 receiver – he went on to have a season filled with dropped balls and underperformance. This year not only did Braylon fail his physical, he was a day late to camp. There is no word on what caused the failed physical, but it is assumed to be the same leg injury that slowed him down last year. Knock Edwards down a few slots on your draft boards.

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In-Season Adjustments – Competing on Steals and Runs

By: Alex Woods 7/30/2009Buzz up!vote now

August is a pivotal point in the fantasy baseball season. It is at this point that a fantasy owner makes the decision to compete for the title or quit. Most importantly if an owner makes the commitment to take a shot at the title he must sit down and make a realistic assessment of his team strengths and weaknesses. He must identify categories where there is the most potential to move up, and others where it may make sense to punt. This article will introduce the speed rating statistic made popular by Bill James to identify players with the best chance of contributing in stolen bases and runs. The speed score uses a four component analysis to identify players who are not only successful at base stealing, but also at running the bases. Four component analysis is an advanced statistical approach that attempts to normalize a group of correlated variables or components into a single principal component. In layman terms we take four statistics around speed and combine them into a speed score. The four components that go into the speed score are:

1. Stole Base Percentage

2. Frequency of Attempts

3. Percentage of Triples

4. Runs Scored Percentage

Each component is then weighted to yield the final speed score. Looking at 2009 statistics we can rank each player by speed score and use that list to identify potential free agent / trade acquisitions to target. Speed Scores of 5 are considered average. Using 2009 statistics yields the following ranking of players:

Rank	Name	Spd
1	Michael Bourn	8.5
2	Chone Figgins	7.8
3	Carl Crawford	7.6
4	Jacoby Ellsbury	7.6
5	Nyjer Morgan	7.4
6	Emilio Bonifacio	7.3
7	Jason Bartlett	7.2
8	Matt Kemp	7.2
9	Ian Kinsler	7.2
10	Justin Upton	6.9
11	Juan Pierre	6.9
12	Dexter Fowler	6.9
13	B.J. Upton	6.8
14	Willy Taveras	6.8
15	Ben Zobrist	6.7
16	Shane Victorino	6.7
17	Chris Young	6.7

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Cliff Lee to Phillies: Second Half Fantasy Implications

By: Alex Woods 7/30/2009Buzz up!vote now

Yesterday former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies. What kind of fantasy impact can his owners expect in the future? Well, on the positive side he is moving from the AL to the NL so he will get to face the pitcher. However, he is moving to one of the best hitters parks in the big leagues as shown in the BCRT.com strategy article: GB/FB Rate Uncovered – Peeling the Onion on Pitching Performance. Amazingly, Lee has never pitched in Citizens Park so it is tough to estimate how the new ball park will work out for him. Lee’s GB/FB rate has increased over the past four years and still remains over one so we do not see the move having a negative impact. Furthermore, Lee’s BABIP of .325 is a bit over his career average indicating he has had some bad luck in the first half. We predict his luck to change and Lee to make a big impact for Philadelphia over the last two months of the season. Congratulations to his fantasy owners who should see a boost in value.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

BCRT.com Pre-Season Fantasy Football Positional Rankings

By: Alex Woods 7/29/2009Buzz up!vote now

Below are the 2009 BCRT Fantasy Football Pre-Season Positional Rankings. Our rankings were produced by running our proprietary regression model against our database of historical player data to project player performance. We have included the ESPN ADP to help identify potential over/under performance.

QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DEF

Brett Farve To Stay Retired…..For Now OR NOT!

By: Bobby Hastings 7/29/2009Buzz up!vote now

The terrorist situation in Minnesota appears over for now. Earlier in the day Brett Farve informed coach Childress that he intends to stay retired and will not be playing for the Vikings this year. However, by nightfall Farve informed ESPN that he will continue working out and throwing just in case. This is unreal! Is this guy for real???? We at BCRT still expect him to suite up this year. Stay tuned to this one as it evolves. You just cant make stuff like this up. Who will hit an NFL field first this year? The former dog fighting kingpin, or the guy that is looking to un-un-un-retire?

The Creature Feature

By RonE B

Hello there Mr. and Mrs. Bleacher Creature reader. My name’s Ron. I like sports and sport accessories like fantasy athletics. The series you are about to read is a part of a greater series known as The Creature Feature. The Creature Feature is intended to be a diary of my fantasy successes and follies in managing fantasy teams. I also like to contribute to my own site the Front Office Fan. Come by and say hello. Maybe we can be friends.

The fantasy baseball season features my team, MoVaughn MoProblems, in competition with the best of Beerballs, my league. It is a 12 team, 3 divisions, keeper-league that is scored on a head-to-head basis in the 5x5 format. Scoring categories include Batting Average, Home Runs, RBI, Runs Scored and Stolen Bases on offense, and ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, Wins and Saves in Pitching. Weeks begin on Monday and end on Sunday and at the end of the week the team with the best score in each category wins (most home runs/wins, best batting average/ERA). The end of the week score is then scored in Wins-Losses-Ties. A tie in a category is generally more common with categories like Home Runs, Wins or Saves. At the end of the season the top 6 teams make the playoffs with the top-2 division leaders getting bye weeks in the first round.

Dear Offense: Do Better! Love, Ron

7/29/09 - RonE B

All season long I’ve had trouble in RBI and Runs scored. It’s not like I’m even a bad offensive team, just that nothing is sticking. I’m one of the best teams in stolen bases with 97 (2nd), competitive in homers, 124 (5th), and OPS, .823 (6th), but am among the worst in Runs scored, 455 (9th), and RBI, 434 (10th).

This is troubling for a variety of reasons. First, despite being competitive in homers and OPS it doesn’t mean I am assured success in the categories. Meanwhile, it is pretty much guaranteed that I will end up losing the runs scored and RBI categories.

It’s the crux of baseball in general. Players and teams are only as good as those guys around them. My guys can hit the ball but apparently the guys around them can’t. My guys get on-base and then through either power or steals make sure to get themselves into scoring position.

For weeks I’ve tried to find a way to improve things. There’s no clear solution to this RBI/Runs Scored problem. In fact, with my team as young as it is, and being in a keeper league with very sexy rules (10 no-limit keepers to go with either two or three prospects depending on their major league experience), I am not in the business of trading anyone.

I am, however, in the business of creating statistical formulas that prove my point and show just how ridiculous my team is.

According to most experts, OPS should show a correlation to runs scored. That’s an incomplete though, a fragmented sentence if you will. OPS is nice, but what if the line-up is unbalanced? What if the middle of the order is so much better than the bottom of the lineup to the point that it skews the team average?

Everything in baseball depends on various factors. A guy that bats .300 with mostly singles is only as valuable as his speed and the guys that bat in front of him (see: Jacoby Ellsbury). He needs speed to make up for his lack of power. His steals make his singles as good as any extra-base hit. But his singles are worthless unless there are men in scoring position when he’s at bat.
My guys are doing well in OPS and stolen bases but the guys around them aren’t getting on-base or bringing them home enough to make it worth it. So how do we factor this?

Lucky for you, I came up with a nice little formula to see how good a team is. This can be used for any player or team. It shows how good the guys around him are given what he does best.
(Runs Scored + RBI + Stolen Bases – Home Runs – Caught Stealing) * OPS = CHEAT

CHEAT (Created Hitting Efficiency Attributed to the Team) shows how good a team is at bringing home runners without using a home run, pretty much how good a team is at small ball.

The greater the OPS the greater the CHEAT score. This makes the stat more reliable because OPS is still more important to note.

With that here are my league’s stats and MLB’s stats to this point in the 2009 season. In looking at a fantasy team it is important to note their CHEAT score relative to their OPS whereas MLB teams it’s more important to analyze their actual runs scored.

Fantasy CHEAT

MLB CHEAT

Bloody Tuesday – The Unit, Thome & Oswalt Go Down

By: Alex Woods 7/29/2009Buzz up!vote now

Breaking news – big injury day today in the MLB. First, Randy Johnson was diagnosed with a partially torn rotator cuff. We knew he was going down this season and the time has come. RJ lived right up to pre-season predictions of being a valuable contributor before eventually falling to injury. Second, Thome is out with his annual back troubles – you can expect him to miss a few days. However, the Thome situation is one to watch as these injuries are never good for an aging power hitter. Lastly, Roy Oswalt left tonight’s game with a lower back strain. There is no word yet exactly how much time he is expected to miss. Again, this is a situation to watch as any type of injury to the back of a pitcher should be of concern. If any of these injuries have an impact on your team be sure to visit the BCRT Free Agent Pickups and Free Agent Pickups Archives sections for replacement player suggestions.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Weekly Free Agent / Waiver Fantasy Baseball Hot Pickups

By: Brian Hawks
7/28/2009Buzz up!vote now

Ryan Garko 1B (.285 Avg 11 HR 39 RBI 29 R)

Ryan Garko was once considered a potential break out player - a first baseman with some pop. Well those expectations have quickly faded over the past year as Garko has failed to deliver. However, over the past month Garko is hitting .338 with 4 HRs, 11 R and 9 RBI. The signs are there and point to a second half turn around. Take one last gamble.

BleacherCreatureRotoTalk Recommendation: Acquire

Jeff Francoeur RF (.261 Avg 7 HR 49 RBI 34 R)

The jury is still out as to if a change in scenery will turn around Francoeur’s career. However since coming to NY Francoeur is hitting close to .300 with 17 RBIs. We don’t know if it’s the Citi Field Shake Shack or the NY air, but it appears Francoeur is in for a nice second half.

BleacherCreatureRotoTalk Recommendation: Monitor

Jorge De La Rosa SP (8-7, 4.78 ERA 112K 1.37 WHIP)

The Colorado pitcher called De La Rosa is simply on a tear at this point. De La Rosa, who started the season 0-6 has won his last 6 starts and is averaging a respectable ERA of 3.05 over the win streak. He has only allowed 2 home runs since June 5th all while posting a high strikeout rate. At this point we recommend picking up De La Rosa and seeing where he takes you. If this is nothing more than a hot streak you should be able to get a few more quality starts out of him before he blows up again.

BleacherCreatureRotoTalk Recommendation: Acquire & Play Matchups

Carlos Marmol RP (2-1, 3.17 ERA, 56 K 3 S)

Marmol a fan favorite and H.Acevedo favorite has struggled mightily this year. After last years dominating season Marmol was widely considered a shoe in for the closer slot coming into the year. He was denied the chance to close and went on to have a terrible first half marked by an inexplicable lack of control. However, over the past month the old Marmol has decided to stand up. Back to his old ways the fireballer has stuck out 17 in 14 innings of work over the past month. The solid K rate goes along with 1.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. If someone gave up on the Marmol run to your waiver wire and pick him up.