Home Teams Coming Off a Bye: Is There A Fantasy Football Player Advantage?

By: Bobby Hastings 10/25/2009

We all think of the negatives around the bye week for fantasy football purposes, but could there be a huge positive? Is it possible that rested players coming off a bye outperform their average weekly output? This article will explore whether or not there is a real advantage to starting players coming off a bye week who are playing at home.

The thinking here is that the extra rest and the comforts of playing at home will lead to higher player performance. To explore this we looked at a sampling of players we consider “starter-worthy” from the 2008 season and compared their home team post bye week performance to their average numbers for the year. The results were very interesting; lets take a look at the major skill positions.

Quarterbacks coming off a bye and playing at home averaged 316 yards per game. Interestingly, that was only 42 yards more than the average weekly output of the players in the sample from the quarterback position. Rather than focus on the additional fantasy point (assuming 40 passing yards=1 pt) we keep our attention on the 316 yards per game average. What that tells us is that by starting a quarterback coming off a bye at home you are almost guaranteed a big yardage game. The scenario seems to minimize the chance of a below average performance. These quarterbacks also averaged close to two TDs per game, which again is another indicator of above average play.

Running backs coming off a bye and playing at home averaged 77 yards per game, which was 20 yards higher than the seasonal average of the other running backs included in the sample. That translates to an average additional output of 2 fantasy points (assuming 10 yards=1 fantasy point). While these results are not as convincing to us as the quarterback numbers, it does appear that you can get decent production out of running backs playing under the home team coming off bye week scenario. Despite the slight increase in rushing yards, we did not see an advantage in overall TD output from running backs in the sample. At the end of the day, the running back position still comes down to match-ups. If the match-up is right, we would slightly bump up a home team post bye week running back.

Finally, wide receivers coming off a bye and playing at home averaged 104 yards per game. That is 42 yards above the average weekly output of the sample, which came in at 61 yards per game. That extra output translates to a full 4 fantasy points per game (assuming 10 yards=1 pt). In addition, the 104 yards per game average is again a very strong indicator that your top receivers will play above their average at home coming off the bye. Wide receivers also saw a slight increase in average TDs versus their seasonal average, which we view as further confirmation of the benefit gained by playing WRs in the home team coming off a bye scenario.

This analysis indicates that the passing game seems to benefit most from the week off and the home field advantage. The numbers are very convincing from the quarterback and wide receiver positions. Running backs do not seem to benefit from the scenario as much and we would not recommend significantly bumping up their value in the home team post bye scenario. In summary, we think we are on to something here. Feel free to elevate quarterbacks and wide receivers who are playing at home and coming off the bye week.

Does the Wildcat Offense Have an Effect on Fantasy Football?

By: Bobby Hastings 10/18/2009

The Wildcat offense has taken the league by storm. When run correctly it is so effective that most teams are attempting to work it into their weekly game plans. This article will explore what the Wildcat is, which teams run it, and the potential impact of use on individual player performance from a fantasy football perspective.

If you have been living on a different planet and are not familiar with exactly what the Wildcat is, essentially it is a formation where the ball is snapped directly to the running back rather than the quarterback. Since the quarterback typically does not have blocking responsibilities the formation allows the offense to use an additional blocker. In addition, there is often a receiver/running back in motion from the slot that gives the offense the ability to run up the middle or to the outside. Defenses now have to account for not only the additional blocker but if the play will go inside or outside. To make things even tougher for the defense there are flavors of the wildcat that line a quarterback up on the outside, opening up the potential for a passing game out of the Wildcat!

All of that sounds great, but does it work? The answer is yes. In 2008 the Dolphins (who feature the Wildcat offense more than any other team) employed the Wildcat on 11% of their snaps. They averaged an impressive 6.5 yards per carry out of the Wildcat versus 3.9 out of traditional formations. This season the Eagles have worked the Wildcat into their offense and are averaging 5.04 yards per carry out of it versus 3.9 yards per carry out of traditional offensive formations. Other teams have not been as successful. The Raiders have attempted to feature Darren McFadden out of the Wildcat, however he is only averaging 5 yards per carry versus 4.4 yards per carry out of traditional offensive sets.

It seems that the combination of the proper personnel and experience running the formation contribute to Wildcat success. For that reason, other than the Dolphins and Eagles the Wildcat will remain a trick formation for most NFL teams and have little impact on individual player statistics. Table 1 is a list we have put together of NFL teams that run the Wildcat offense. This list may have changed to date as more and more coaches work Wildcat schemes into their game plans. In any case we have broken the Wildcat teams into three categories, Heavy, Moderate and Light. The categories differentiate teams by their use of the Wildcat. The table also highlights which players could see a potential fantasy football impact from their teams utilization of the Wildcat package. Miami is the only team that falls into the Heavy category. This year they are using the Wildcat about 13% of the time versus 11% last year. So, as you can see even the gold-standard Wildcat team is not really using the package so frequently. Teams in the moderate category run approximately 5% of their snaps out of the Wildcat while teams in the Light category use it very sparingly.

So, what does the Wildcat mean for fantasy football? Essentially unless your player is on the Dolphins don’t expect to change the way you value your players. However, given the right weekly matchup, against a team with poor run defense, Wildcat usage can be used to differentiate between two similarly ranked players. Wide receivers that run in the wildcat may see a slight rise in value due to additional rushing yards that they most likely would not be getting out of traditional offensive sets. Players like DeSean Jackson, Devin Hester and Anquan Boldin are the real names to watch. Most running backs will see only a slight benefit at best from running the wildcat. As previously stated, since the scheme is used 13% of the time at most by the Dolphins and more like 5% of the time by average NFL teams, Wildcat running backs should see only a small up tick in value. Likewise, Quarterbacks involved in Wildcat systems should not see a significant decrease in value. With the offense only being utilized on average for approximately 5% of a teams plays, the issue of the Quarterback coming off the field should be of little concern.

So there you have it. Hopefully this provided an in-depth look at what the Wildcat is and why it provides an advantage to the teams that run it. Is the Wildcat a fad? Will defensive coordinators find a way to shut it down? Only time will tell. For now, there is one thing that is for sure -the formation should NOT have a large impact on the valuation of fantasy football players.

Table 1.

Heavy

Miami

Moderate

Philadelphia

Buffalo

Chicago

Dallas

Oakland

Denver

Light

Arizona

Atlanta

Baltimore

San Diego

San Francisco

St. Louis

BleacherCreatureRotoTalk Last Minute Injury Report

By: Frankie Lampando 10/05/2009

Week 4 Fantasy Football Injury Landscape

Quarterbacks
Tom Brady practiced fully and should start
Brett Favre limited in practice will start
Matt Hasselbeck out
Mark Bulger out

Running Backs
LaDainian Tomlinson probable, but will split carries
Marion Barber probable, but Choice will carry the load
Clinton Portis GTD
Kevin Smith GTD – not expected to play.
Frank Gore out
Jamal Lewis out
Willie Parker doubtful
Carnell Williams probable
Derrick Ward GTD – not expected to play
Mike Bell out

Wide Receivers
Wes Welker GTD – practiced all week.
Dwayne Bowe GTD
Antonio Bryant GTD – should play
Anthony Gonzalez out
Lance Moore limited in practice, should play
Domenik Hixon out
Chaz Schilens out

Tight Ends
Todd Heap practiced fully and should play.

Kickers
Phil Dawson doubtful

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Week 4 NFL Straight Up / Spread Picks

By Masterballer 10/03/2009

FFBaller.com

We are 32-16 against the spread and 30-18 straight up for the season.

Chicago (-10) over Detroit
The Lions beat a very bad Redskins team at home for their first victory since the 2007 season. Meanwhile the Bears look like they've found their franchise QB in Cutler and face their weakest opponents of the season in the Lions. With Kevin Smith a game time decision, the home team should win this one easily. Chicago 34-14

Indianapolis (-10.5) over Seattle
The Seahawks will probably not have Hasselbeck under center again and will have trouble keeping up with the high powered Colts offense. Peyton Manning has been sensational in his last two games and will prove too much for Seattle to handle. Colts 30-17

Cincinnati (-5.5) over Cleveland
The Bengals will use Benson to control the game which will allow Palmer to have his best game of the year. The last time these two teams met at the Dawg pound, the Browns were shutout. Bengals 24-7

New York Giants (-8.5) over Kansas City
The Giants own the top rated pass defense and should make easy work of Matt Cassel. With Dwayne Bowe likely out or at best hobbled, this could be a repeat of the Giants game with the Bucs. Giants 27-7

Baltimore (+2) over New England
You can't run on the Ravens but you can pass. Brady will have some success but the Ravens offense has finally arrived and the Pats won't be able to outscore Baltimore. Ravens 30-21

Tennessee (-3) over Jacksonville
The 0-3 Titans will be a little more desperate than the 1-2 Jaguars. The strength of the Jaguars, Maurice Jones-Drew, goes up against the second ranked run defense of the Titans. Tennessee won both times when these teams met last year and this game won’t be any different. Titans 17-10

Tampa Bay (+7) over Washington
The Bucs aren’t as bad as the Giants made them out to be. It just happens that the Giants are a very good team. The Skins aren’t nearly as good as the Giants and are lucky they’ve actually won a game. Both teams are desperate but I’ll give the edge to the home team in a close game. Redskins 24-20

Miami (+2.5) over Buffalo
Miami has played better than their record indicates with their opponents combining for a 7-2 record. They won both games against the Bills last year and a desperate Dolphins team should make it three in a row. Dolphins 17-10

San Francisco (-9.5) over St. Louis
The Niners would be 3-0 except for a last second Favre heave into the end zone. They owned the 4th ranked rushing defense and should shut down the Rams' only weapon, Steven Jackson. 49ers 27-10

Oakland (+9) over Houston
Houston's defense is horrific which will keep this game close since the Raiders need all the help they can get scoring. Each team will exploit the other's weak rush defense which will keep their respective QBs from making costly mistakes. In the end, the Texans have a little more firepower than Oakland. Texans 28-20

New Orleans (-7) over New York Jets
The Saints will be the best offense the Jets have seen this season. While the Jets' defense has been outstanding, the Saints can score in too many ways proving in Philly they can even dominate the best defenses. It might be a closer game if it were later in the season and played in New York ( NJ really) but the Saints will take this one at home. Saints 28-17
Dallas (-3) over Denver

Denver remains a mystery going undefeated in the first three weeks but between miracle tosses and weak opponents it's hard to get a gauge on them. Romo continues his uneven play for Dallas so if the Denver defense is for real he's going to have a tough afternoon. Denver has only played against a good QB once this year and that was a rusty Palmer in week one. He still managed to throw for 247 yards so Denver's run may be ending now that the easy games are over. Cowboys 28-24

San Diego (+6.5) over Pittsburgh
The Steelers will look to exploit the Chargers' weak run defense and keep Rivers off the field. Rivers should get enough time with the Steelers having problems getting to the QB. It'll be close but I like the desperate team at home. Steelers 21-20

Green Bay (+3.5) over Minnesota
This should be a tight game between division rivals. The Packers won't be able to stop AP but they always seem to be able to hang with the Vikes. Packers 20-17

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How Important Is an Elite Quarterback To Your Fantasy Football Team

By: Bobby Hastings 10/03/2009

Just how important is it to have a top tier quarterback on your fantasy football team? We have heard time and time again that the running back position is the most important slot to fill on your fantasy football team. In recent years with the emergence of the running back by committee we have begun to see the argument that a top WR may be worthy of a pick over a running back. The common belief on quarterbacks is that it is a deep position where you can still get acceptable performance from the average starter. This article will challenge that thesis and explore the fantasy football quarterback position in depth.

The one statistic that trumps all in fantasy football is the league championship. That is what we all strive for and is the ultimate measure of success. Taking a close look at my league over the last five years yields interesting results (Table 1). Every championship team over the past five years had a top tier quarterback. In fact, in three of the five sample years the championship team has had the number one ranked quarterback at the end of the season. In all five seasons, there was a never a champion without a top three quarterback. While the overall sample size is small (one league, five years) we still think the results are significant. So not only do you need to get lucky and avoid injury to win a championship, but you will also need maximum performance from the quarterback position to have a shot at the title.

Table 1.
Yr	Player	Overall Rank
2008	Aaron Rodger	#2
2007	Drew Brees	#1
2006	Drew Brees	#1
2005	Matt Hasselback	#3
2004	Brett Favre	#1

Next we took a look at the top 25 quarterbacks from 2008 to see if we could determine a cut off between the various grades of quarterback. The goal here is to answer the question: “Do you really need to go out and draft the #1 ranked quarterback, or are their other players who can be had later in the draft with an equal chance of finishing the season in the top 3? Looking at the top 25 quarterbacks from 2008 we can separate the distribution into 5 cohorts (Table 2). There is a clear difference in performance across the cohorts. What this tells us is that ranking quarterbacks based on tier is a valid methodology. Furthermore, selecting a quarterback from the first cohort (top 5 qb) should help to ensure that you finish the year with a top 3 quarterback and a shot at your league title. Another thing the distribution really emphasizes is large difference between the top and average quarterbacks.

Table 2.
Cohort	Avg Points	Ranking
1	266	1-5
2	223	6-10
3	191	11-15
4	173	16-20
5	145	21-25

Lastly, we wanted to take a look at the variability in week-to-week performance across the top 25 quarterbacks. We have already established that the top tier quarterbacks put up more points over the length of the season, but just how consistent is this performance? If the top qbs are getting their numbers in a handful of games that should not really contribute as much to consistent fantasy winning. Table 3 breaks the top 25 quarterbacks up into 5 cohorts. Analyzing the standard deviation in weekly fantasy points across the 5 buckets indicates there is no difference in variability from the top cohort and bottom cohort of quarterbacks. What that means is the best quarterbacks in the league are just as likely to have a bad game as the mid-tier/lower-tier quarterback options. However, since the top tier qb’s output is consistently higher they will produce more points throughout the season. In other words, a bad game from a top qb is a lot better than a bad game from a bottom tier qb.

Table 3.
Cohort	STDEV
1	30
2	24
3	34
4	32
5	38

So what have we learned? It appears that you need a top tier quarterback to win your league. The top quarterbacks put up more points and are no more erratic in the distribution of their scoring than an average quarterback. Drafting a quarterback projected to finish in the top 4 is a safe bet to ensure your quarterback is a top ranked player at the end of the season and you have a chance to win your fantasy football championship!

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Week 4 Fantasy Football- Start'em / Sit'em

Masterballer 10/02/2009 FFBaller.com

Start of the week

Steve Slaton, WR, HOU - He finally showed some life last week against the Jags but only had 12 carries as the Texans threw the ball too much and ended up losing. If Kubiak was smart, and I do have my doubts, he would run Slaton more to keep their porous defense off the field and well rested. They have a perfect opportunity this week against a Raider team that has a run defense just about as bad as the Texans.

Start'em
Cedric Benson, RB, CIN - He's averaging almost 100 yards a game and draws the lowly Browns this week. The Bengals will get an early lead and just use Benson to run the clock down against the 30th ranked run defense.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - Oakland may not be very good against the run but the Texans are dead last. If the Raiders want to keep this game close, they'll use their RBs to keep Houston within reach.

Devin Hester, WR, CHI - Hester should be able to build on a solid week 3 when he faces the Lions' 30th ranked pass defense.

Santana Moss, WR, WAS - The Skins lost to the Lions but at least their offense showed signs of life. Zorn may have realized that Moss must involved for their offense to move. Tampa's defense should offer little resistance.

Kevin Walter, WR, HOU - Andre Johnson will be blanketed by the premier corner in the league which means more targets for Walter.

Sit'em
Steven Jackson, RB, STL - The Rams will have trouble moving it on the ground against a tough run defense that held AP in check last week.

Fred Taylor, RB, NE - He's still got some life left but keep him on the bench this week since the Pats have to face the Ravens' top ranked rush defense.

Patrick Crayton, WR, DAL - Dallas faces the surprisingly stingy Denver defense. While they haven't really been tested I would leave Crayton on the bench this week.

Matt Cassel, QB, KC - The Giants own the best pass defense in the league. Last week they cost Byron Leftwich his job.

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Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings

By: Bobby Hastings 10/01/2009

Buzz up!vote now

|QB|RB|WR|TE|DEF|K|

QBs
RK		TM	Vs.
1	Philip Rivers	SD	@PIT
2	Matt Schaub	HOU	OAK
3	Peyton Manning	IND	SEA
4	Tom Brady	NE	BAL
5	Jason Campbell	WAS	TB
6	Jay Cutler	CHI	DET
7	Eli Manning	NYG	@KC
8	David Garrard	JAX	TEN
9	Drew Brees	NO	NYJ
10	Aaron Rodgers	GB	@MIN
11	Tony Romo	DAL	@DEN
12	Carson Palmer	CIN	@CLE
13	Kyle Orton	DEN	DAL
14	Brett Favre	MIN	GB
15	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	@NO
16	Joe Flacco	BAL	@NE
17	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	SD
18	Shaun Hill	SF	STL
19	Trent Edwards	BUF	@MIA
20	Kerry CollinsKerry Collins news	TEN	@JAX
RBs
RK		TM	Vs.
1	Adrian Peterson	MIN	GB
2	Brandon Jacobs	NYG	@KC
3	Cedric Benson	CIN	@CLE
4	Julius Jones	SEA	@IND
5	Steve Slaton	HOU	OAK
6	Darren McFadden	OAK	@HOU
7	Ronnie Brown	MIA	BUF
8	Willie ParkerWillie Parker news	PIT	SD
9	Chris Johnson	TEN	@JAX
10	Willis McGahee	BAL	@NE
11	Ray Rice	BAL	@NE
12	Thomas Jones	NYJ	@NO
13	Darren Sproles	SD	@PIT
14	Maurice Jones-Drew	JAX	TEN
15	Ryan Grant	GB	@MIN
16	Glen Coffee	SF	STL
17	Donald Brown	IND	SEA
18	Joseph Addai	IND	SEA
19	Clinton Portis	WAS	TB
20	Matt Forte	CHI	DET
21	Steven Jackson	STL	@SF
22	Tashard ChoiceTashard Choice news	DAL	@DEN
23	Correll Buckhalter	DEN	DAL
24	Pierre Thomas	NO	NYJ
25	Marshawn LynchMarshawn Lynch news	BUF	@MIA
26	Fred Taylor	NE	BAL
27	Ahmad Bradshaw	NYG	@KC
28	Ricky Williams	MIA	BUF
29	LenDale White	TEN	@JAX
30	Fred JacksonFred Jackson news	BUF	@MIA
31	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	DAL
32	Leon Washington	NYJ	@NO
33	Reggie Bush	NO	NYJ
34	Ladell Betts	WAS	TB
35	Mewelde Moore	PIT	SD
36	Michael Bush	OAK	@HOU
37	Chris Brown	HOU	OAK
38	Carnell Williams	TB	@WAS
39	Larry Johnson	KC	NYG
40	Le'Ron McClain	BAL	@NE
41	Maurice MorrisMaurice Morris news	DET	@CHI
42	Derrick Ward	TB	@WAS
43	Jamaal Charles	KC	NYG
44	Chester Taylor	MIN	GB
45	Laurence MaroneyLaurence Maroney news	NE	BAL
46	Jerome Harrison	CLE	CIN
47	Kevin Faulk	NE	BAL
48	James Davis	CLE	CIN
49	Peyton Hillis	DEN	DAL
WRs
Rk		TM	Vs.
1	Vincent Jackson	SD	@PIT
2	Jerricho Cotchery	NYJ	@NO
3	Chad Ochocinco	CIN	@CLE
4	Johnny Knox	CHI	DET
5	Devin Hester	CHI	DET
6	Reggie Wayne	IND	SEA
7	Andre Johnson	HOU	OAK
8	Steve Smith	NYG	@KC
9	Calvin Johnson	DET	@CHI
10	Randy Moss	NE	BAL
11	Nate Burleson	SEA	@IND
12	Greg Jennings	GB	@MIN
13	Marques Colston	NO	NYJ
14	Donald Driver	GB	@MIN
15	Roy Williams	DAL	@DEN
16	Santonio Holmes	PIT	SD
17	Mike Sims-Walker	JAX	TEN
18	Santana Moss	WAS	TB
19	Brandon Marshall	DEN	DAL
20	Justin Gage	TEN	@JAX
21	Nate Washington	TEN	@JAX
22	Earl Bennett	CHI	DET
23	Percy Harvin	MIN	GB
24	Mario Manningham	NYG	@KC
25	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	SEA	@IND
26	Terrell OwensTerrell Owens news	BUF	@MIA
27	Kevin Walter	HOU	OAK
28	Pierre Garcon	IND	SEA
29	Devery Henderson	NO	NYJ
30	Hines Ward	PIT	SD
31	Bobby Wade	KC	NYG
32	Derrick Mason	BAL	@NE
33	Patrick Crayton	DAL	@DEN
34	Eddie Royal	DEN	DAL
35	Antwaan Randle El	WAS	TB
36	Torry Holt	JAX	TEN
37	Kenny Britt	TEN	@JAX
38	Donnie AveryDonnie Avery news	STL	@SF
39	Sidney Rice	MIN	GB
40	Bernard Berrian	MIN	GB
41	Keenan Burton	STL	@SF
42	Andre Caldwell	CIN	@CLE
43	Antonio Bryant	TB	@WAS
44	Laveranues Coles	CIN	@CLE
45	Isaac Bruce	SF	STL
46	Chansi Stuckey	NYJ	@NO
47	Braylon Edwards	CLE	CIN
48	Michael Clayton	TB	@WAS
49	Bryant Johnson	DET	@CHI
50	Julian Edelman	NE	BAL
TEs
RK		TM	Vs.
1	Dallas Clark	IND	SEA
2	Chris Cooley	WAS	TB
3	Todd Heap	BAL	@NE
4	Antonio Gates	SD	@PIT
5	Kellen Winslow	TB	@WAS
6	Owen Daniels	HOU	OAK
7	Jason WittenJason Witten news	DAL	@DEN
8	John Carlson	SEA	@IND
9	Jeremy Shockey	NO	NYJ
10	Greg Olsen	CHI	DET
11	Vernon Davis	SF	STL
12	Dustin Keller	NYJ	@NO
13	Benjamin Watson	NE	BAL
14	Kevin Boss	NYG	@KC
15	Marcedes Lewis	JAX	TEN
16	Visanthe Shiancoe	MIN	GB
17	Heath Miller	PIT	SD
18	Zach Miller	OAK	@HOU
19	Anthony Fasano	MIA	BUF
20	Chris Baker	NE	BAL
Ks
RK		TM	Vs.
1	Lawrence Tynes	NYG	@KC
2	Nate Kaeding	SD	@PIT
3	Stephen Gostkowski	NE	BAL
4	Steven Hauschka	BAL	@NE
5	Matt Prater	DEN	DAL
6	Ryan Longwell	MIN	GB
7	Mason Crosby	GB	@MIN
8	Olindo Mare	SEA	@IND
9	Nick Folk	DAL	@DEN
10	John Carney	NO	NYJ
11	Rian Lindell	BUF	@MIA
12	Jason Hanson	DET	@CHI
13	Jeff Reed	PIT	SD
14	Joe Nedney	SF	STL
15	Robbie Gould	CHI	DET
16	Josh Scobee	JAX	TEN
17	Adam Vinatieri	IND	SEA
18	Rob Bironas	TEN	@JAX
19	Dan Carpenter	MIA	BUF
20	Sebastian Janikowski	OAK	@HOU
Defs
RK		Vs.
1	Chicago Bears	DET
2	Cincinnati Bengals	@CLE
3	Green Bay Packers	@MIN
4	Minnesota Vikings	GB
5	Seattle Seahawks	@IND
6	Indianapolis Colts	SEA
7	Tennessee Titans	@JAX
8	Baltimore Ravens	@NE
9	San Francisco 49ers	STL
10	New York Jets	@NO
11	Denver Broncos	DAL
12	New Orleans Saints	NYJ
13	Oakland Raiders	@HOU
14	Detroit Lions	@CHI
15	San Diego Chargers	@PIT
16	Buffalo Bills	@MIA
17	Jacksonville Jaguars	TEN
18	New York Giants	@KC
19	Pittsburgh Steelers	SD
20	Washington Redskins	TB

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